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Dollar Dominance on Strong Retail Sales

Investors bought U.S. dollars after retail sales rose for the third month in a row. The increase in demand was widely anticipated but the increase in overall spending along with spending ex autos beat expectations. This means that while higher prices certainly played a role in the gains, consumers were not discouraged by price hikes to spend more on electronics, sporting goods, books and musical instruments. Spending at clothing stores declined modestly from the previous month but that will change in November and December with holiday shopping. Economists expect a strong holiday season with many retailers starting sales extra early this year in anticipation of shipping delays.

AMC – the Popcorn is Getting Stale

AMC, one of the great meme stock stories of the year remains relatively close to its mania highs but forward progress has come to a grinding halt and the longer that dynamic lasts the more likely the stock is to fall.

Why is USD Decoupling from Yields?

The U.S. dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies on Monday despite a good jobs report and a rise in Treasury yields.

Dovish Fed Taper, Could BoE Hike?

Once the dust settled, the dollar ended the day virtually unchanged (slightly lower) from its pre-FOMC levels against other the major currencies. Stocks and bond yields ended higher which should benefit the Yen crosses.

#USD Outlook – Taper Won’t Be Main Focus

A precise end date for QE will be positive for the dollar, although it could also be calculated by the amount of bond purchases cut per month.

Euro Hits 2021 Lows – More Losses Ahead?

Euro hit a year to date low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after quietly trending lower for the past 5 weeks. Economic performance and monetary policy direction are the two most important drivers of currency flows and in the case of euro, both have been calling for further weakness.

FX: Busy Week Ahead, What to Expect

This will be another busy week for the foreign exchange market. Inflation and spending – two of the most important elements of Federal Reserve policy will be in focus.

Still the Greatest Trade of Our Lifetime?

In June we discussed the investment thesis for uranium noting that several analysts have called it the “greatest trade of our lifetime”. Since then uranium stocks have exploded and we take another look at the reasons why this is suddenly the case.

Two Trades for the EV Revolution

But although EV market penetration is miniscule, regulatory pressures, advances in battery technology and massive capital spending by auto manufacturers indicates that in the next decade the world will make an inexorable shift away from the polluting and expensive ICE engine.

Did CCP Cause a Rally in Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is up 50% of the lows and there are a plethora of reasons why the crypto currency has rallied, but perhaps the most important one is one that is least discussed – China.

Is Gold About to Drop Hard?

The sudden collapse in Gold at the start of week’s trade may be signalling that US monetary policy will begin to tighten into the second half of the year as the Fed begins to taper its ultra easing stance in light of consistently strong US economic data.

Earnings Showdown – MSFT v. AAPL

Both Apple and Microsoft will report after the bell today and in a redux of the 1980’s investors are wondering which technology behemoth will beat expectations and lead the post earnings reaction play.